The Position of the "Representative Concentration Pathways" Scenario in the Evolution of Climate Change Scenarios

Authors
naser bagheri moghaddam 1
mohammad ali ahmady 2
Majid AbbasPour 3
Amir Nazemi 4
1 PhD in Technology Management, Member of the Scientific Faculty of the Technology and Innovation Policy Research Group, Future Studies Department, Iran's Science Policy Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD Student of Future Studies, Science and Technology Future Studies Research Group, National Science Policy Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
3 PhD in Environmental Systems Engineering, Member of the Academic Staff of the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
4 PhD in Technology Management, Member of the Scientific Faculty of the Research Group of Future Studies of Science and Technology, the Country's Science Policy Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/eiat.2024.206071
Abstract
The progress of the past decades in science and technology and the observations related to the increase in the average temperature of the earth have strengthened the theory of greenhouse gases and the emphasis of governments in pursuing the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth up to 2 degrees Celsius and trying to maintain it up to 1.5 degrees Celsius. With the approach of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this research, by briefly introducing the theory of climate change, the parameters of climate change during the past decades have been examined, and the history of international actions in pursuit of the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth has been examined. In the following, the position and importance of using scenarios as one of the effective tools in climate change research has been discussed and the available scenarios in climate change research are divided into four categories: "Emission Scenarios", "Climate Scenarios", "Environmental Scenarios" and "vulnerability scenarios" have been investigated. Also, the scenario development process in climate change research, and specifically the scenarios of the Inter-State Climate Change Commission from the first generation to the fourth generation, were evaluated and compared. Specifically, the difference between the fourth generation of these scenarios, which has been a new paradigm in scenario planning, in changing from a serial process to a parallel process, was examined and the importance and necessity of preparing this scenario in the field of climate change was evaluated. In the end, the scenarios of "Representative Concentration Pathways" from the fourth generation of climate change scenarios have been explained in more detail, and suggestions have been made for using this scenario in climate change studies and preparing national plans and policies
Keywords
Climate change
Scenario
Representative Concentration Pathways
Science and Technology Policy
Environment
Subjects

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Environment and Development
Volume 15, Issue 27
September 2023
Pages 21-34